The Shadow knows. There used to be a radio program called The Shadow where the hero, Lamont Cranston, the Shadow, would overcome the shadowy forces of doom by clouding the vision of those around him. Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men was their intro line. They were great shows and you can still find them on the Internet.

The stock market is kind of like the shadow. As you walk along with the sun at your back you cast a shadow. No matter which way you move the shadow stays ahead. Fast, slow, right, left. It doesnt make any difference.

An equity market is the shadow of the economy staying out in front following every twist and turn. Depending upon the height of the sun the shadow may be long or short. You can see it either as a long term or short term prediction of the passage.

If you did not know what a shadow was you would not realize it is telling you something about where you are going. If you see the shadow fall across a hole you know you must step over or around it depending upon its width and depth. The path of our economy is predicted by the direction of the stock market. When things are good and everyone is making money the shadow seems to go up and when the economy slows (for whatever reason) the shadow darker and heads down.

At this time (11/04) the sun is shining brightly and the shadow stretches out long and friendly before us. The stock market is going up and everyone is feeling good, but we also know that tomorrow storm clouds may appear making our shadow seem to be a monster black image that hides the potholes in our path.

When that occurs we must be ready to put on our raincoat to protect what we carry through life. One of the most important is the money we have put aside for the time we wish to depart the path, sit by the road and contemplate all the beautiful things we have brought. That means we must guard against losing what we have created and not let the shadowy rain cloud wash them away.

That raincoat for your investments is an exit strategy for your portfolio. Without a plan to protect your assets it will be too easy to seem them washed away. This does not mean diversification which is what brokers want you to do. It means a plan to exit (sell) stock and mutual funds that are going down. This can be done with a simple percentage stop-loss order for your stocks and a mental stop loss for funds.

Brokers never want you to sell even though there may be a commission involved because once you money is in a money market neither they nor the brokerage company makes any money. You and only you care about your money so you must protect it. Think about an exit plan now and put it into place.

Do not become a victim of the dark shadow.

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.