When most analysts, financial planners, fund specialists and investors try to decide whether to buy a particular stock they immediately go to the financial statements to determine the growth potential of the company. Numbers and more numbers. Then management analysis and industry speculation. Unless you are an experienced financial analyst (and there are not very many good ones) the numbers in the reported statements can be very misleading - just as the company Controller wants them to be.

Let's not consider fraud as there has been plenty of that both here and abroad. They are all honest (I hope). Most corporate executives want to remain within the law so they report statements that are true to the FASB - Financial Accounting Standards Board.

As the old saying goes, "Numbers don't lie, but liars can figure". If you are good with accounting techniques you can make a bankrupt company look good - on paper. On CNBC-TV many folks watch the CEOs telling a great story about their company. You sure don't expect them to tell you the whole truth and nothing but the truth, do you? That is why I always hit the mute button. And many times when you look to see what the insiders are doing in this wonderful (?) company this executive and his buddies are selling out.

Then there is Morningstar that gives us those twinkling heavenly bodies. Nothing like a 5-star mutual fund - that has lost money for the past 4 years. So much of their information is old and if they know it you can be sure that has already been factored into the current price. How about those peer groups? Suppose this particular peer group is ranked 99th out of 100 or even 15th or lower. One question: why do you still own it?

Why are you putting your money in the stock market at all? The idea was to make more money. Right? Yet the majority of little investors will hold a stock or mutual fund while it goes down and down. Wouldn't it make more sense to sell out once it loses a certain percentage from its highest price after you buy it? If you bought it at $20 and it is now $40 is it now time to sell? I don't know so why not let the price action tell you. If you only wanted to risk 10% when you bought your stop-loss would have been $27. It now should still be 10%, so you will be out at $36 if it starts down. Suppose you tracked that stop all the way up to $80? This is why I have always preached that stops make you money.

The best (?) analysts know very little more than you. They just have a bigger vocabulary about the market. You and your dart board can do as well. All any truly smart investor needs is common sense and the ability NOT to fall in love with any position. Know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em.

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.