Quick, look out the window. Its raining. No, the suns out. No, its cloudy. Wait a second, it is changing again, but I cant tell what it is going to do.

Kinds like the stock market. Up one day, down the next, then goes sideways. That stock I bought is not acting right. Maybe I should sell it, but Ill wait another day. My broker (the weatherman) says it will go back up.

At the beginning of every year we hear stock market forecast (whether we want to or not) and every one of the experts is about as accurate as our TV weatherman. Be sure to take your umbrella. Every year the Wall Street Journal surveys more than 50 economists and every year about 1/3rd of them are right. A weatherman can do better than that. The analysis of these birds seems impeccable and when you hear them speak so confidently you are sure they are right. He must be right hes a broker/economist/financial planner and they know everything. Well, at least a lot more than I do maybe.

Having owned a brokerage company and hired about 300 brokers I can assure you they dont know any more than you do. It just sounds that way. The one question you should always ask any broker before you give him your money is if he had a winning year last year. The market was down overall about 25%. If he lost more than 5% you dont want to know him. And if he says he made a bundle you had better question him carefully and ask for proof.

For the last 3 years almost everyone lost money. But this year it will be different. My broker said so. Only once before did it ever go down 4 years in a row and the odds of its happening again are astronomical. Now thats logic for you. If you want to know what the weather is you look out the window. This same logic goes for the stock market. It is going down except for brief periods. As long as the major trend continues it would be wise NOT to buy anything.

Now that President Bush has given us his stimulus package and the Democrats have countered with theirs I wonder how long they are going to fight over how much and who gets what. It could be months before we see anything definitive from Washington. And that means you and I wont be getting any relief until then.

Tell those guys in the Beltway that its raining and we need an umbrella NOW!

Al Thomas

Albert W. Thomas has spent most of his life in the field of finance. In 1965 he founded an insurance holding company, Security Dynamics Investment Corporation, after having been an agent and General Agent for several life insurance companies. In 1970 he became cofounder and president of Real Life Estate, Inc., that marketed a unique real estate and life insurance package.

After he became interested in commodities he bought a seat for his personal trading on the Chicago Open Board of Trade, which is now known as the MidAmerica Commodity Exchange. Later he became a full time trader and also acted as a commodity broker for a few select clients. By fellow floor traders Al is considered to be an excellent technical analyst much of which is outlined in his book IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT! It became a best seller on Amazon.

In 1981 he sold his membership on the Exchange and with his wife, Carolyn, lived full time aboard their 41' ketch, the Aumakua (which means guardian angel in Hawaiian). They sailed in Florida and the Bahamas for two years.

He founded World Trading Group in 1984 that grew to the seventh largest introducing commodity brokerage firm in the U.S. with 35 offices from coast to coast, Alaska and Canada. It was sold in 1992.

Al is a graduate of Northwestern University with a B.S. degree in Commerce and is a member of MENSA. He is now president of Williamsburg Investment Company that syndicates his weekly financial column since 1999 to more than 300 newspapers and writes a financial market letter called Over My Shoulder that is quoted in Barron?s and many other publications. A 3-month trial subscription is available on his web site. He is a regular guest on several financial radio talk shows.

His favorite pastime is fishing.

Mr. Thomas is available for speaking engagements. Please call 321-453-5300 for more information.